I Know How Umbrella will End

Umbrella Movement/Occupy Central : Step up your game (or lose it all)!

I can tell you with confidence how Occupy Central/Umbrella Movement will end.

HK will get its democracy.

Possible moves

• Government
• Oppression.
• Low-level - Intimidation, Hired Thugs
• Useless. Drives public support lower. Makes gov position harder to defend.
• Mid-level - "Non-lethal force"
• Tried so many times. Only firms the resolve Occupiers, members of the movements.
• High-level - Lethal force
• Gov came very close to trying this.
• Mid-level force backfired, so high-level force will backfire far worse.
• May be used to try and stir up a real riot.
• Creates a rally point for all future movements. (eg. TianAnMen Square)
• End of Negotiations. Negotiation will be made impossible.
• Networked people will simply end the government. We can end the BS about "Support the police" (awfully like "Support the troops" by the way). Anyone still unclear about what government is will be completely clear about it.
• Everyone forced to take a stand - Be slaves or take a common moral stand, push for anarchy. (I don't know which. I think given the events occurred, people will take a stand - because there's nothing to lose.)
• Ultra-High-level - Think East German secret police
• What comes after "High-level" oppression, if people don't take a stand, or become fragmented.
• We won't want to live like this.
• Serves as negative motivation to avoid.
• Negotiation
• With HK Gov
• HK Gov insists it can't do anything. What the officials really mean to say is "I will never risk my cushy government job for a risky cause like democracy." 
• Useless.
• Occupy doesn't know how to talk to them. 
• The right way is...don't talk to them. Get them to talk, then call them out on their immorality and leeching off of productive people. Get straight to the point and never, ever invoke the law - which is and will always be the Gov's home-turf, not yours.
• With Beijing
• The CCP knows what they do is immoral. They hate you and they are absolutely honest about it.
• "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun" - Mao. Coercion is their language. You don't have anything to initiate force with. You don't speak their language.

• People
• Lose Interest.
• This would be a real threat, if the government somehow managed to stop doing things and getting them wrong. However, the government doesn't seem to be able to do that...sooo we can forget this.
• Normalization. If you wall people in long enough, they could get Stockholm Syndrome. However, the option of escalation and free civil participation exist, so Stockholm Syndrome is avoided.
• Infighting, Neighbor against neighbor.
• As of now, people are holding it fairly well. The social norm has been established - anyone who initiates use of force has automatically lost. If anything, there is not enough debate going on.
• Escalation. Grow the movement
• Self-explanatory. Obviously increases chances of getting a better deal.
• Occupy more minds.

Stalemate.

Government's not letting go (Democracy requires government, obviously). People can't let go, or can always try again.

Solution.

What must the solution be like? (And why democracy/universal-suffrage doesn't fit the bill entirely.)

• Must not rely on Government.
• Crowdsourcing. Crowdfunding. Grassroots.
• All-inclusive.
• All humans (aliens, tourists too) are welcome! :)
• Non-violence. (Adhere to non-aggression principle, with minimum, passive self-defense)
• Decentralized. Distributed. Able to be completely P2P.
• Infinitely Scalable. Cost per supporter acquisition is constant, constantly lowered.
• A counter-example would be riot-police. The costs of dispersing a small group is low, but explodes to impossibility if the group approaches the total population of the area. (IE cannot disperse a riot that involves almost all HK people.)
• Based on universal, Compatible with current values.
• Non-aggression principle.
• Volunteerism (Naturally arises. Not universal.)
• Free trade, expression.
• Simple.

There is only one solution. 

• Go for Statelessness. 
• Until people realize this, government (Beijing and by proxy, HK) is not really being pressured. Occupy will have to stay there, essentially indefinitely.
• Democracy is a dangerous trap that nobody has gotten out of before, except to go into totalitarianism. I don't think anyone would want to put effort into walking into a trap, if they knew it was a trap.

There is no doubt this is a time of tough decisions, breakthroughs, tests of will. I think we have the will. We are just locked in by our lack of understanding.

What can we do?

• Convince people one by one?

To be Continued....

Share your thoughts!