Me:
That aside, what do you think about the NK issue?
Friend:
Not looking good. I lot of bad things could happen very soon. What do you think?
Me:
My long essay starts.
China's going to get squeezed into doing a lot more about it.
What the world wants mostly is to stop NK from testing weapons. If NK goes too far, China will likely take rapid and all-encompassing military action to ensure US and allies do not. Problem is, China doesn't have enough resources near NK to completely control and deny NK territory for now. But if we hear China multiply numbers and equipment near the border, which is likely now, we'll know that the end is near.
There is nothing NK can do about China moving in, and unless the US wishes to risk war with Russia, NK and China to defuse NK situation, there is nothing US and Korea can do about it either. It's going to be a massive win for China - they just have to solve the logistics issue of moving sufficient assets, - which is basically the best of everything military that China has now, into the Northeast, preferably without detection.
It's going to be a very big win for China. On one hand, it would have full access to NK territory, which is strategically important for breaking out of the Pacific containment US and allies sought to hold, while keeping Japan and SK in check in regards to territory. It would also allow China to open up NK in the pace it sees fit, and the subsequent unification would lead to two more territories joining the belt-road. To the south, the ability to mobilize and react with military assets in such a short time and to a mountainous territory as harsh as NK would send a strong message to India that its military options for grabbing disputed Tibetan territory are ineffective, placing China in a better position to negotiate.
And of course, Taiwan will also be persuaded to integrate more closely with China, seeing that it would become less likely that the US will be able to help militarily, due to demonstrated area denial capabilities.
As for Russia, it's a wild card. I think it's probably going to follow China's plan. With China demanding ever more resources, Russia is going to find it hard to refuse the growing export opportunities for all kinds of natural resources, namely gas and oil. But at the same time, Russia does want more territory all the time. I doubt it wants NK territory, as the Koreans would obviously object, as they clearly look like the Chinese and South Koreans a whole lot more than most Russians.
Japan is going to find itself almost surrounded. I'm not sure they have much of a choice but to warm up to China.
Friend:
Sounds logical. Thanks. From what sources have you derived this assessment?
Me:
CNN panic, overcoming illusions of US omnipotence, logic, mostly. I went to Yunnan last week, and the trains and saw a train fully occupied by troops, which made me realize just how critical logistics to controlling such a big territory as China.
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